B.O.R.E.D. - Sep 12, 2003

B.O.R.E.D.
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by Daniel Kaplan (archives)
September 12, 2003
Daniel's weekly look at the box office.

B.O.R.E.D
Box Office Reported Eloquently by Daniel

Pirates sails past Matrix
Pirates of the Caribbean passed the Matrix Reloaded this weekend to become the 2nd biggest film of the year thus far and first for strictly live-action. The movie already has two sequels in the works but one must wonder what other attractions Disney might turn into films. With Country Bear Jamboree, Haunted Mansion, Pirates of the Caribbean all taken how many more options do they have? Well, now I will unveil the curtain of time and take you into the future to reveal Disney films that might be appearing in a theater near you:

SNOWMAN: Monster of the Matterhorn: A small quiet village faces major changes when it's citizens begin to hear strange sounds emanating from the distant mountain. Mountain climbers risk life and limb to unravel the mystery. A thrill-packed film, but I have to say the surprise ending was a bit of a disapointment. When the monster was revealed to talk like John Ratzenburger and offered the townfolk lemon-flavored snow cones, I thought it took away from the suspense.

Soarin' Over California: Beautiful cinematography captures the epic true story of freedom. John is a simple business man, but when he faces corporate politics and legal entanglements he decides to throw it all to the wind and buy a hang-glider. As his love for gliding grows, he makes it a goal to be the first man to glide in every county of California. Along the way he faces major challenges and dangerous obstacles such as flying golf balls. Eventually he becomes a legend and an encouragement to all mankind.

Jungle Cruise: When a comedian's plane crash lands in the jungle, he has to cope with his new environment. Once he is found and returns to civilization he becomes famous by doing hilarious nature shows on Animal Planet. The star then builds up a touring agency in the jungle and gives wise-cracking tours on the "world famous" Jungle Cruise. My favorite part was a cameo by the famous Dr. Albert Falls.

Figment: The Movie! Direct-to-video animated production. Figment discovers that he isn't really the only figment of your imagination, but that there are 321 different variations of him. After they get loose from other people's imaginations, he must help them control their powers before they drain all the imagination in the world (and consequently finish Disneyland).

Box Office Timewarp:
Top 10 live-action films released under Walt Disney Pictures banner: #1 - Pirates of the Caribbean #2 - Who Framed Roger Rabbit? #3 - The Santa Clause #4 - The Santa Clause 2 #5 - 101 Dalmatians #6 - Honey, I Shrunk the Kids #7 - Remember the Titans #8 - Princess Diaries #9 - George of the Jungle #10 - Dick Tracy

Obviously this is unadjusted, otherwise movies like The Love Bug or Mary Poppins would be on the list.

This Weekend:
There are three films opening up this weekend and they couldn't be more different. First is Once Upon a Time in Mexico from Spy Kids director Robert Rodriguez. This film ends the El Mariachi trilogy and is released by Sony Pictures. Johnny Depp stars in the film so it will be interesting to see if there's a bit of a Pirates of the Caribbean spill-off. With a huge release in over 3,000 theaters Once Upon a Time in Mexico could open with around $21.1 million dollars.

Matchstick Men, starring Nicholas Cage, has been receiving generally good reviews from the critics. It's also the only new release this week that does not carry the 'R' rating. The light-hearted look at con artists might be just different enough to snatch up $15.3 million dollars this weekend.

Lions Gate is distributing Cabin Fever, a suspense/horror film about a flesh-eating virus. Moviegoers have been recently bombarded with a few horror films, with Jeepers Creepers 2 and Freddy Vs Jason released this past month. A release date more towards Halloween might have helped this film, as it seems like it has an up-hill battle to pull in the cash. Look for Cabin Fever to make a somewhat small $8.6 million dollars.

Pirates of the Caribbean continues to proceed on it's course to $300 million. This weekend shouldn't prove much troublesome and I see Pirates of the Caribbean falling a tiny 21% to $4.2 million dollars.

Disney's other successful live-action film, Freaky Friday, doesn't have much added competition this weekend. With it's continued strong word-of-mouth it should have a small drop of 40% to $3 million.

Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star failed to attract a large audience last week. With more competition and bad word of mouth it should fall about 55% to $3 million.

Jeepers Creepers 2 has been tracking like a typical front-loaded horror film. This upcoming weekend with Cabin Fever adding even more competition it should drop 57% and pick up $2.8 million.

Open Range has shown good legs so far and the new films shouldn't hurt it too bad. A small 35% decline to around $2.7 million seems about right.

S.W.A.T and Seabiscuit could see 37% and 32.4% drops to make $2.9 and $2.5 million dollars respectively.

Top 10 Predictions

#1 - Once Upon at Time in Mexico $21.1 million
#2 - Matchstick Men $15.3 million
#3 - Cabin Fever $8.6 million
#4 - Pirates of the Caribbean $4.2 million
#5 - Freaky Friday $3 million
#6 - Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star $3 million
#7 - S.W.A.T $2.9 million
#8 - Jeepers Creepers 2 $2.8 million
#9 - Open Range $2.7 million
#10 - Seabiscuit $2.5 million

Last Weekend Comparison (Actual/Predicted)

#1 - Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star ($6.7 / $6.8)
#2 - Jeepers Creepers 2 ($6.6 / $6.1)
#3 - Pirates of the Caribbean ($5.3 / $6.2)
#4 - Freaky Friday ($5 / $6.3)
#5 - S.W.A.T ($4.6 / $4.9)
#6 - The Order ($4.4 / $6)
#7 - Open Range ($4.2 / $5)
#8 - Seabiscuit ($3.7 / $4.5)
#9 - Freddy Vs Jason ($3.2 / $2.8)
#10 - The Medallion ($2.2 / $2.6)

If it was a Disney film. . .
Cabin Fever would be about a huge movement among Annual Passholders to bring back the Burning Cabin along the Rivers of America.

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-- Daniel Kaplan
-- Posted September 12, 2003