B.O.R.E.D. - May 7, 2004

B.O.R.E.D.
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by Daniel Kaplan (archives)
May 7, 2004
Daniel takes a look at the summer movies.

B.O.R.E.D
Box Office Reported Eloquently by Daniel

The summer season is just about to start.  Here's my thoughts for the upcoming July and August months.

 
July 2nd
Spiderman 2 brings back the cast from the first film and a great new villain in Doctor Octopus.  While I'm not sure if it can quite reach the huge success of the first film, it's definitely a front runner for the top 5.  Look for Spiderman to reach somewhere in the $380-400 million dollar range.
 
July 9th 
King Arthur looks like it's going to be slammed by it's competitors.  I haven't seen any trailers or seen any previews, so it makes it rather hard to predict, but I guess the fact I haven't seen advertising is already a good indicator.  Pirates of the Caribbean shocked everybody with it's huge success at this same weekend.  Don't look for a repeat here.  King Arthur is probably going to do somewhere in the $80-90 million dollar range.
 
Will Ferrell's comedy Anchorman should be quite successful and pull in around $90-110 million.
 
July 16th 
I, Robot is one of the more intriguing titles of the summer and also one of the more volatile.  It could experience an A.I like backlash if it doesn't connect with audiences enough.  I see it doing well, but not necessarily having a broad enough base to get it into the top 5.  I, Robot might make about $130 million.
 
A Cinderella Story is a summer release for ex-Disney star Hillary Duff.  I'm not sure if the summer release was the smartest decision and I think Hilary Duff's popularity may be slightly dwindling.  Cinderella Story should bring in $55 million.
 
July 23rd
The sequel to last year's highly praised Bourne Identity, The Bourne Supermacy looks like a sure fire winner.  Watch for the film to accumulate $110 million.
 
Catwoman looks like a Batman and Robin like film.  While Halle Berry as Catwoman might get some curious filmgoers, the film has already had some bad word-of-mouth and it's in a very competitive slot.  Catwoman will probably flop to about $50-60 million.
 
July 30th
After watching the preview on ABC, I will be completely shocked if The Village doesn't reach the top 5.  The only thing that could stop it is if the ending is truly as terrible as online rumors suggest.  Even with a bad ending, the ride could be interesting enough and the opening weekend will be very large.  The Village will bail Disney out of a disappointing summer and should make around $200-210 million.
 
Thunderbirds should be an interesting film to watch.  It has a pretty small market though, so I wouldn't expect the film to get too much higher than $80-90 million.
 
August 6th
Collateral is a Tom Cruise vehicle (although he is a villain in this film) and it should be quite successful.  A gross in the neighborhood of $110 million seems about right.
 
August 13th
Alien Vs. Predator is a hard film to predict.  On the one hand it seems everybody is dreading the film will be pretty terrible but on the other hand people are wanting it to be terrible.  Campy fun can bring in box office, but only to a certain extent. I would be surprised if the film made over $100 million.
 
The Princess Diaries 2 with Anne Hathaway and a reported song performed by Julie Andrews is a guaranteed hit.  The film will outperform the first with about $120-130 million.
 
August 20th
It's been quite a while since The Exorcist originally premiered, but the reissue of the film reminded people why the film is considered among the scariest.  Exorcist: the Beginning is premiering in a time slot that has been quite successful for many horror films lately.  With a lack of horror films this summer Exorcist: The Beginning should be able to bring in a sum in the $100-110 range.
 
Classic quote of the week: "That is, without doubt, the worst pirate I've ever seen. " - Norrington from Pirates of the Caribbean
 
Tragic quote of the week: "We're going to heaven, you can't take it with you."
"The hell I can't!"
-Ezra and Emma from the Haunted Mansion
 
Summer Preview Chart
 1. Spiderman 2 $389 million
 2. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $337 million
 3. Shrek 2 $247 million
 4. Troy $221 million
 5. The Village $211 million
 6. The Terminal $206 million
 7. The Day After Tomorrow $184 million
 8. Van Helsing $182 million
 9. I, Robot $132 million
10. Princess Dairies 2 $120 million
 
This weekend's new releases
The summer is here and the big releases are just around the bend.  This year should be very fascinating to watch box office wise as it is a lot more volatile that last year.  Almost no sequels and remakes and a lot of originality means a more interesting movie season and also the bigger chance an unknown could pop up to the surface.
 
It starts with Van Helsing, the much advertised tentpole for Universal.  While a big first weekend is pretty certain, the long term success is a little less certain.  While you may notice I did pick it as a top #10 film of the summer, of all the films it's the one I put the biggest question mark on.  Anyway, this weekend it should do well and start the summer off with a bang.  Look for Van Helsing to pull in $64 million.
 
New York Minute is a new Mary Kate and Ashley Olsen film.  While the duo has had success on the direct-to-video market, I don't expect a huge splash here.  New York Minute should bring in about $9 million.
 
This weekend's top 10

#1  - Van Helsing $64 million
#2  - Mean Girls $12 million - 50%
#3  - Man on Fire $9.3 million -34%     
#4  - New York Minute $9 million
#5  - 13 Going on 30 $5.5 -45%
#6  - Godsend $3.9 -43%
#7  - Laws of Attraction $4 -40%
#8  - Kill Bill Vol. 2 $3.1 -47%
#9  - Envy $2.8 -55%
#10 - The Punisher $1.5 -57%

 If it were a Disney film. . .13 Going on 30 would be a movie about how Tomorrowland always seems older than it really is.

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-- Daniel Kaplan
-- Posted May 7, 2004