B.O.R.E.D. - Jul 9, 2004

B.O.R.E.D.
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by Daniel Kaplan (archives)
July 9, 2004
Daniel's got a mid-summer checkup on this year's films.

B.O.R.E.D.
Box Office Reported Eloquently by Daniel

Midsummer Checkup
Well, with the first two months of summer movie season over I thought I might check my predictions and see how well I've been doing.  From the predictions I made back in March:

 

Van Helsing: Prediction: $182 million Actual: $120 million 
Troy: Prediction: $221 million Actual: $132 million
New York Minute Prediction: $27.5 million Actual: $14 million
Raising Helen Prediction: $75 million  Actual: $36 million
Chronicles of Riddick Prediction: $60 million Actual: $55 million
Shrek 2 Prediction: $247 million Actual: $430+ million
The Day After Tomorrow  Prediction: $184 million Actual: $187 million
Garfield: The Movie Prediction: $120 million Actual: $70 million
Around the World in Eighty Days Prediction: $60 million Actual: $22 million
Dodgeball Prediction: $80 million Actual: $105+ million
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban  Prediction: $337 million  Actual: $235+ million
The Terminal  Prediction: $206 million  Actual: $75+ million (biggest disappointment of the season)
 
Overall accuracy: 42.13%
 
Ouch! Not too hot.  Of course it's a little hard to predict films before you know the public's reaction.  Troy and Van Helsing would have come closer to my prediction if they would have been better received.  I'm a lot more confident in my predictions for the next two months.  We'll see what happens.
 
Classic Quote of the Week:  "We never rob, we just borrow a little from those who can afford it." - Robin Hood from Robin Hood
 
Tragic Quote of the Week: "Don't you ever migrate." - Laverne from Hunchback of Notre Dame
 
Last Weekend

Spiderman 2  Prediction: $101.6 million  Actual: $115.8 million

Fahrenheit 911  Prediction: $24.1 million Actual: $22.2 million
Dodgeball  Prediction: $15.5 million Actual: $11.4 million
White Chicks  Prediction: $12.1 million Actual: $11.5 million
Terminal  Prediction: $11.2 million Actual: $10.7 million
The Notebook  Prediction: $10 million Actual: $10.4 million
Harry Potter 3  Prediction: $8 million Actual: $8.5 million
Shrek 2 Prediction: $7.5 million Actual: $8.4 million
Garfield: The Movie  Prediction: $4.5 million Actual: $4.3 million
Two Brothers  Prediction: $3.1 million Actual: $3.9 million
 
Overall accuracy: 88.37% 

This Weekend
King Arthur made a rather disappointing $4.8 million on Wednesday.  Compare that to Pirates of the Caribbean's $13.5 million dollars.  Even if King Arthur keeps it's ratio to Pirates of the Caribbean the most it can hope for is $109 million dollars. Certainly another disappointment in a year full of flops for Disney. I wouldn't worry too much yet, because Princess Diaries 2, The Village, Incredibles and National Treasure all look like potential hits.
 
#1  Spiderman 2 $52.1 million
#2  Anchorman $41 million
#3  King Arthur $18 million
#4  Fahrenheit 9/11 $10.1 million
#5  Sleepover $6.2 million
#6  The Terminal $5.6 million
#7  The Note Book $5.5 million
#8  Dodgeball $4.6 million
#9  White Chicks $4.3 million
#10 Shrek $4.2 million
 
If it were a Disney film. . . Anchorman would be how a hammerhead shark named Anchor becomes a superhero of the ocean. Kind of an Incredibles meets Finding Nemo sort of thing. 

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-- Daniel Kaplan
-- Posted July 9, 2004