B.O.R.E.D. - Mar 19, 2004

B.O.R.E.D.
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by Daniel Kaplan (archives)
March 19, 2004
Daniel's weekly box office report plus a look at summer movies.

B.O.R.E.D
Box Office Reported Eloquently by Daniel

I apologize for not having a column last week, you see I was very concerned about an asteroid that was approaching the Earth. Of course I felt really stupid today when I found out it was going to miss us by about 26,000 miles.

Summer Preview
This summer promises to be quite an exciting and interesting year for box office. Many films are difficult to quite pin-point as the summer is very crowded and films will end up splitting grosses. With that being said, here are my thoughts/predictions for the upcoming summer months.

The summer season starts off with Van Helsing from Universal Pictures. The movie features Dracula, The Wolfman and Frankenstien's monster. This first weekend has been lately a huge springboard for new releases. Mummy Returns and Spiderman both premiered the first weekend of May to very large opening weekends. While I don't think this movie has quite the broad appeal of those two Van Helsing should start the summer with a large splash in the neighborhood of $180-200 million dollars.

New York Minute is a Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen vehicle from Warner Brothers. The movie will have relatively limited appeal and make around $25-30 million.

May 14th brings in Troy, a huge epic from Warner Brothers. The star power of Brad Pitt and Orlando Bloom combined with the heightened interest in large-scoped films (Lord of the Rings) should guarantee a big success. Troy is one of the films that's a strong candidate for the top 5 this year and should make in the neighborhood of $250-270 million.

Shrek 2 opens on May 21st. With Shrek being on the of the most successful animated films of all time, and with the all-star cast returning, Shrek 2 is a lock for huge grosses. I wouldn't be surprised to see Finding Nemo's record weekend smashed and for the film to bring in all together around $230-240 million.

On May 28th the creators of Independence Day return with another disaster flick, The Day After Tomorrow. Apparently it deals with an oncoming ice age that will flood New York . This film is actually a dark horse for #1 of the year, but it really needs to have that fun zany quality that Independence Day had. Another Godzilla disaster could happen, but I'm expecting something more in the middle. A total of just around $180 million seems likely, but again it will really depend on how well the film plays with audiences.

Raising Helen is a Touchstone release from director Gerry Marshall. The movie should bring in a nice gross of around $75 million.

June 4th brings the much anticpated Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. Most surveys of fans of the book list the 3rd book as their favorite. This film also features a different director than the first two films, and many early reports have labeled this film the best so far. With all those factors Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban could become the Finding Nemo of family films this year and make over $300 million dollars.

The Chronicles of Riddick from Universal Pictures. The film is a sequel to Pitch Black, a rather strange choice since Pitch Black wasn't that incredibly successful. Anyway, all signs to me point to this film being a big bomb. I would be surprised to see this film go over $60 million dollars.

The Stepford Wives will be an interesting story box office wise. I'm not exactly sure which way it's going to go, but I imagine it won't be that successful.

Garfield: The Movie is also a vulnerable title because of the serious competition for the family market during the summer. While I expect the first weekend to be large due to the notoriety of the main character, I don't see this film making more than around $120-130 million.

Director Steven Spielberg's The Terminal opens on June 18th. Based on the absurdly true story of a man who was stranded in an airport for a decade due to visa trouble, the movie stars Tom Hanks and Catherine Zeta-Jones. With top talent and the usual draw of Spielberg's name, as well as the mainstream storyline, The Terminal should bring in around $180-200 million.

Touchstone's Around the World in Eighty Days starring Jackie Chan should make an interesting film. I'm not sure if the summer is the best release time for this type of film, but it should bring in somewhere between $60 and $70 million.

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story from 20th Century Fox doesn't look all that promising on paper, but I think people might be surprised with the money this film pulls in. Look for around $70-80 million for Dodgeball.

June 25th brings Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. This highly stylized film has an unique look and a fun comic book plot. If the movie pulls together well in front of audiences than it could be the surprise smash of the summer. I expect it will be somewhat mediocre and therefore make around $110 million.

Next week I'll have my thoughts on July and August.

Classic quote of the week: "Aww. . .candelight. . .music. . .can't think of a better place for hand-to-hand combat." - Phoebus from Hunchback of Notre Dame

Tragic quote of the week: "It looks like you need a little advice from the love monkey." Zini from Dinosaur

Quote-O-Matic
"Alright you go that way, and I'll go this way."
"What do you want me to do, dress in drag and do the hula?"

Winnie-the Pooh from Winnie-the Pooh and the Blustery Day Timon from The Lion King

This weekend

#1 - The Passion of the Christ $24 million

#2 - Dawn of the Dead $16.3 million

#3 - Taking Lives $12 million

#4 - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind $11.1 million

#5 - Starsky and Hutch $9.3 million

#6 - Secret Window $9.3 million

#7 - Hidalgo $7.6 million

#8 - Agent Cody Banks 2 $4.9 million

#9 - 50 First Dates $3.6 million

#10 - Twisted $1.8 million

If it was a Disney Film. . . Dawn of the Dead would be a gripping docudrama showing park guests who visit the theme parks until 12:00 a.m and then come back for Extra Magic Hours at 8:00 a.m the next day.

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-- Daniel Kaplan
-- Posted March 19, 2004