B.O.R.E.D.
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This Weekend
I'm so glad Brother Bear is coming out. It's probably not for the reason you're
thinking, it's because I'll never have to see "My name is Koda. . .say it with
me. . koooo. . daaaa." ever again in a preview. Anyway, kidding aside Brother
Bear is a rather strange film to predict. On the one hand you have Phil Collins,
the Disney name, cute talking animals and decent marketing. On the other hand
you have seemingly little enthusiasm, some lukewarm reviews and the odd Saturday
release date. The Disney fan in me wants me to aim high for this film, but the
Box Office side of me is a little more cautious. I don't understand why Disney
is releasing the film on Saturday. No matter what it makes it definitely would
have made more with the Friday gross included and without it it doesn't have a
solid chance at #1 this weekend. The momentum of the film could be hurt from the
starting gate so hopefully word of mouth will carry it through. With all things
considered, I think Brother Bear should be able to muscle up about $19 million
dollars over the two days. Not a huge amount, and it could do significantly
better, but I'm playing it somewhat conservative.
Scary Movie 3 shocked many industry experts (and me too) by grossing a large $48 million dollars last weekend. While the previous sequel Scary Movie 2 dropped 53% in it's second weekend, I think Scary Movie 3 should hold up better. A nice slide of about 46% to $26 million seems about right.
Radio has little competition for it's market and seems to be generating some positive response. It should slip just 28% to $9.4 million this weekend.
Texas Chainsaw Massacre has nowhere to go but substantially down. After last weekend's drop of 49% watch another 50% fall to $7.3 million.
Runaway Jury should match it's last weekend drop of 29% and add to it's total $6 million dollars.
Mystic River and School of Rock will bring in $5.5 and $3.3 million dollars respectively.
Kill Bill should fall about 50% and make $3.2 million.
Good Boy! will be hit hard with Brother Bear release and should half it's previous weekend to make $2.6 million.
In the Cut is expanding to 800 theaters this weekend. It's had a very strong average in limited release, so it will be interesting to see how well it does in wide release. I predict about $3.8 million.
Intolerable Cruelty will round out the top 10 with $1.9 million.
Alien: the Director's Cut opens in limited release of about 350 theaters. Look for it to open out of the top 10 with 0.8 million before a more successful run on DVD.
Last Weekend
| Film | My Prediction | Actual | Diff (in tents of million) | Accuracy |
| Scary Movie 3 | 33.2 | 48.1 | 14.9 | 55.12% |
| Texas Chainsaw Massacre | 13.6 | 14.5 | 0.9 | 93.38% |
| Radio | 16.1 | 13.3 | 2.8 | 82.60% |
| Runaway Jury | 8.2 | 8.4 | 0.2 | 97.56% |
| Mystic River | 6.7 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 83.58% |
| School of Rock | 7.3 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 89.04% |
| Kill Bill | 7.3 | 6.3 | 1 | 86.30% |
| Good Boy | 6.2 | 5 | 1.2 | 80.64% |
| Intolerable Cruelty | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0 | 100.00% |
| Beyond Brothers | 6.8 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 30.88% |
|
Total Accuracy |
81.84% | |||
If it was a Disney film
In the Cut would be a new version of Body Wars where you get miniaturized to
examine the inside of a paper cut Of course something goes terribly wrong.
Discuss It
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-- Doobie Moseley
New Disney 101 is not posted on a regular schedule.
-- Posted October 31, 2003