B.O.R.E.D.
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This Weekend
I'm pretty sure you already know this, but there happens to be a quite popular
football game on Sunday this weekend. Generally movie box office is quite low as
people are obviously watching the game on TV, or at least pretending too to
avoid the severe social pressure that ensues on un-watchers. Three movies come
out this weekend, which makes you wonder if the studios forgot what weekend it
was. Maybe they're trying to help their taxes out.
First up is The Perfect Score which is about an attempt at cheating on the S.A.Ts. MTV produced it (big surprise there), so there is a built-in audience. However competition still exists from Butterfly Effect and the two other new films. Perfect Score might only pick up a not-so-perfect $10.4 million this weekend.
Warner Brothers contribution this weekend is The Big Bounce. The movie looks like a re-hash of a million different films and doesn't seem to be generating much buzz. Look for The Big Bounce to make around $6.3 million.
You Got Served is Sony's release. The movie is about a dance competition and seems to be aiming for the R&B market. Releasing it against an MTV film doesn't seem like good strategy. The film should bring in about $8.7 million.
Butterfly Effect will get hit hard by the three new releases. It should half it's weekend and make about $8.5 million
Along Came Polly should drop about 42% to $9.6 million
Master and Commander may finally see box office to help it recover it's huge production costs. It's made about $85 million so far, but the budget is rumored to have been over $100 millon dollars. With the Academy Award nominations (including Best Picture) comes a re-release this weekend. A small splash (no pun intended) of $5.5 million seems likely.
Big Fish should drop about 34% to $4.7 million
Win a Date with Tad Hamilton looks to be headed towards a 40% drop to $4.4 million.
Return of the King should fall only 37% to add $4.3 million to it's huge gross.
Cheaper by the Dozen should make $4.2 million.
Last Weekend
| Film | My Prediction | Actual | Diff (in tents of million) | Accuracy |
| Butterfly Effect | 17.5 | 17.1 | 0.4 | 97.66% |
| Along Came Polly | 19.4 | 16.4 | 3 | 81.71% |
| Wine a Date With Hamilton | 13.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 16.44% |
| Big Fish | 7 | 7.1 | 0.1 | 98.59% |
| Return of the King | 6.8 | 6.8 | 0 | 100.00% |
| Cheaper By the Dozen | 6 | 6.4 | 0.4 | 93.75% |
| Cold Mountain | 4.8 | 5 | 0.2 | 96.00% |
| Torque | 4 | 5 | 1 | 80.00% |
| Something's Gotta Give | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100.00% |
| Mystic River | 2.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 64.71% |
|
Total Accuracy |
82.89% | |||
If it was a Disney film...The Butterfly Effect would be a mystery about a strange phenomenon at the Imagination Institute. It seems every time somebody swings a perch inside a bird cage, a butterfly appears on it.
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-- Daniel Kaplan
-- Posted January 23, 2004