B.O.R.E.D.
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This weekend
This weekend brings three new releases into theaters.
Master and Commander is a massively budgeted (some report $150+ million) film starring Russell Crowe. The movie is being backed by Fox, Miramax and Universal to help cover it's production costs. Critics reactions are very favorable and Pirates of the Caribbean has increased interest in epic high-sea films. The PG-13 rating will also help as the Matrix carries the less accessible R rating. It's long film time will keep it from getting too high, but I predict it could get as high as $29.4 million.
Elf opened with a large $31.1 million last weekend, and has since kept up strong numbers. With holiday season approaching, Elf has become the family film to beat (although I think Haunted Mansion will do it quite easily). Even with the added competition from Looney Tunes: Back in Action, Elf should be able to slide just 25% to $23.3 million.
Matrix: Revolutions opened somewhat disappointedly with "only" $24.1 million dollars. It went to have $83.8 million dollars by Sunday. By most standards that would be a great opening, however the hoopla and previous success of Matrix: Reloaded made it less than anticipated. The film does not appear to be holding up all that well and word-of-mouth doesn't seem that high either. With added competition from Master and Commander and with a very front-loaded release, Matrix: Revolutions should drop about 59% to make $20.1 million
Looney Tunes: Back in Action premiers in an already competitive family market. Brother Bear and Elf are still posting strong numbers, and Looney Tunes does reek a little of "been there, done that." The demand for a Looney Tunes film doesn't appear to be too big, so I expect this film to make about $14.6 million over the weekend.
Brother Bear had an amazing 4% weekend drop, even though it did have the advantage of the extra day since it premiered on a Saturday. The film has been holding up well and word of mouth has been positive. Looney Tunes will provide some competition but it shouldn't be too much for Brother Bear to slide about 28% to $13.3 million.
Love Actually (which I honestly forgot to predict last weekend, I guess it was the cold) expands it's release this weekend. Last weekend it's per-theater average was incredible and there is a demand for a more chick-flick like film out there. I predict it should be able to surge up to about $10.2 million.
Scary Movie 3 will drop about half to $5.4 million.
Tupac: Resurrection is an MTV Films documentary about the late rap artist Tupak Shakur. Opening in a small amount of theaters (about 800) the film will probably gross around $4.2 million.
Radio and Mystic River will slide 33% and 27.1% to gross $4.8 million and $3.5 million respectively.
Last Weekend
Well, besides the fact they I forgot Love Actually (I know, forget a whole
film?? It was a strong cold, ok?) and Matrix Revolutions came in under my
expectations I did rather well last weekend.
| Film | My Prediction | Actual | Diff (in tents of million) | Accuracy |
| Matrix Revolutions | 75 | 48.5 | 26.5 | 45.36% |
| Elf | 28.3 | 31.1 | 2.8 | 91.00% |
| Brother Bear | 16.3 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 88.11% |
| Scary Movie 3 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 1 | 90.74% |
| Radio | 6.7 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 93.06% |
| Texas Chainsaw Massacre | 5.2 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 93.88% |
| Mystic River | 4.9 | 4.8 | 0.1 | 97.92% |
| Runaway Jury | 4.6 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 97.87% |
| School of Rock | 3.1 | 3 | 0.1 | 96.67% |
| Kill Bill | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 52.38% |
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Total Accuracy |
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What if it was a Disney film?
Master and Commander would be a prequel to the
film Tron. The Master Control unit and Mr. Command Prompt have a war over
whether or not to upgrade to a visually based system as opposed to a text based
one. It will probably get a PG-13 rating with some harsh language like, 2090 if
Command Prompt = Smart then Master Control = Stupid 2100 print "Command Prompt
is a loser!" 2110 goto exit
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-- Daniel Kaplan
-- Posted November 14, 2003